What will the 2027 Social Security COLA be? With the official announcement landing on October 14, the forecasters have nearly all their data in, and they agree more than usual: the 2027 adjustment should come in between 3.4% and 3.6%. The Senior Citizens League and independent analyst Mary Johnson put it at 3.5%, AARP projects 3.6%, and the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget lands at 3.4%. If the middle of that range holds, it would be the largest COLA since 2023, and the first time in three decades that benefits rose at least 2.5% for six straight years.
The forecast table, as of early October
| Source | 2027 COLA estimate | Implied monthly bump |
|---|---|---|
| The Senior Citizens League | 3.5% | About $68 on the average check |
| AARP | 3.6% | About $75 on the average check |
| Mary Johnson (independent analyst) | 3.5% | About $68 to $73 |
| Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget | 3.4% | Slightly under $68 |
The dollar figures are averages, and averages hide the spread. The Motley Fool's math on a 3.5% adjustment works out to roughly $73 on the $2,088 average monthly benefit as of August 2026. The Senior Citizens League's version comes to $67.90, lifting its average from $1,940.08 to $2,007.98. Your own number is simpler than any of that: multiply your current check by 3.5%. Below-average checks gain less, above-average checks gain more.
One caveat the forecasters all share: September inflation data, released the morning of the announcement, is the last puzzle piece. A hot or cool September can nudge the final number a tenth of a point either way. Treat 3.5% as the planning number, not a promise.
Why Medicare gets first dibs on your raise
Here is the part that takes the shine off. The 2026 Medicare Trustees Report projects the standard Part B monthly premium rising from $202.90 to $209.50 for 2027, an increase of $6.60 that comes straight out of your Social Security check before it hits your bank account. And CMS has already finalized the Part D standard deductible at $700 for 2027, up from $615, a 13.8% jump.
Run the net math on the average check. A 3.5% COLA adds about $70. Part B takes $6.60 of it immediately. If you take prescription drugs, the higher Part D deductible eats into the rest before the year is out. For a retiree on a below-average benefit, say $1,500 a month, the COLA adds about $52.50 and Part B alone takes 12.6% of that. This is the hold harmless dynamic I wrote about for the 2026 COLA: the raise is real, and so is the skim.
A bigger COLA is not a raise
I keep a dataset of every COLA back to 1975, and it has made me permanently skeptical of celebrating big ones. A cost of living adjustment is a reimbursement for inflation you already paid, not a raise. A 3.5% COLA means 2026 was expensive: groceries, utilities, insurance, the things retirees actually buy. The adjustment arrives in January for prices you paid all last year.
The deeper problem is the one the Senior Citizens League documents every year. The COLA is tied to the CPI-W, an index built around urban wage earners, not retirees. Retirees spend disproportionately on health care and housing, the two categories that consistently outrun the index. So even a historically large COLA can leave purchasing power flat or falling. For context on how these adjustments compound over decades, see the 10-year and 20-year averages, and how the third-quarter CPI-W math actually works.
Open the free COLA history tool and CSV download
The tool has all 51 adjustments from 1975 to 2026 in a sortable table with a compounding calculator. Run the 3.5% forecast through it alongside the actual history and you will see exactly where 2027 would rank: tied for the sixth-largest in 35 years.
Frequently asked questions
What will the 2027 Social Security COLA be?
Forecasts cluster between 3.4% and 3.6%. The Senior Citizens League and independent analyst Mary Johnson estimate 3.5%, AARP projects 3.6%, and the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget estimates 3.4%. The official figure is announced October 14, 2026.
When is the 2027 COLA officially announced?
The Social Security Administration announces the COLA on October 14, 2026, after the Bureau of Labor Statistics publishes the September inflation report, which provides the final data point for the CPI-W calculation.
How much will the 2027 COLA add to the average check?
At 3.5%, the average retired worker's check would grow by roughly $68 to $73 a month, depending on which average benefit figure is used. Your own increase is 3.5% of your current benefit, so checks below the average gain less and checks above it gain more.
Will Medicare eat the 2027 COLA increase?
Partly. The standard Medicare Part B premium is projected to rise from $202.90 to $209.50 a month for 2027, a $6.60 increase deducted directly from Social Security checks. The Part D deductible is already finalized at $700, up from $615. A meaningful slice of the COLA goes to Medicare before you see it.
Is a bigger COLA actually good news?
It is a reimbursement, not a raise. A large COLA means the year you just lived through was expensive, and the adjustment arrives after you already paid those higher prices. Retirees consistently report that COLAs lag their actual cost increases, especially in housing and health care.
Sources: The Senior Citizens League COLA forecast (Sept/Oct 2026); AARP Public Policy Institute forecast; TheStreet, "2027 COLA tracks 3.5%, but Medicare eats the raise"; Motley Fool (Oct 2, 2026); 2026 Medicare Trustees Report; SSA COLA Fact Sheet. Figures verified October 2026; official COLA announced Oct 14, 2026.